admin
There have been some royal horsey updates, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor has been banned from riding horses and his daughters Beatrice and Eugenie have been banned from watching horse riding, at Ascot.Andrew’s ban is a consequence of
admin
Having missed the onset of a historic inflation surge just years ago, European Central Bank policymakers are likely to avoid casting any Iran war-induced price spike as “transitory” and may keep a lower bar for policy action than in past energy price shocks. In 2022 the ECB was one of the last of the big central banks to tighten policy in response to the economic disruption caused by the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, only lifting interest rates in July of that year — months after the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England - calling the “inflation hump” merely transitory. It subsequently found itself having to raise rates at a record pace as price growth shot past 10%, five times its target and the highest level since the currency bloc was established. While the ECB will again react cautiously to any temporary, oil-led surges in inflation, this time it is mindful both of the lessons from 2022 and of the fact that the import-dependent euro zone economy is more exposed than others to rising energy costs, economists and policymakers said. “We must at all cost avoid describing inflation as ‘transitory’,” said one policymaker who requested anonymity so as to discuss policy deliberations candidly. “The ECB policy outlook is in the hands of military generals now,” the source added of how global prices would now depend on twists and turns in the conflict sparked by the US and Israeli strikes on Iran. The key lesson for the bank is that standard models are less reliable in exceptional shocks and more pragmatic analysis is needed, drawing on the lessons of similar episodes. The war has already pushed oil prices 20% higher this week, and fuel retailers are likely to pass this cost on to motorists within days, creating an instant feedback mechanism. The current environment is not fully comparable with 2022. Fiscal and monetary policies are tighter and there is no post-pandemic spending exuberance which aggravated supply bottlenecks. The war could also resolve quickly, reversing energy price increases. But domestic inflation is still too high. It was only an earlier fall in the oil price which lowered the headline figure below the ECB’s 2% target at the start of the year. Rapid inflation is still a recent memory for firms, so the central bank may be quicker than in the past to start adjusting prices. Global inflation is also still elevated. Even before the war, the US Federal Reserve said the risk of inflation running above its target was meaningful. Minutes from its January meeting show several policymakers were open to rate hikes. “With the 2022 inflation spike a fresh memory, risks are that inflation expectations are less anchored, and the ECB will try to not make the same mistake of reacting too late twice,” Nordea economists Tuuli Koivu and Anders Svendsen said. The ECB’s dilemma is that rate hikes only weigh on prices with a 12- to 18-month lag, so action is only warranted if it believes inflation will be persistent. Moreover, an energy price spike would hit growth, which in turn would be deflationary. But some say that should not be an excuse for inaction. “We had this debate in 2022 and we were clearly too timid,” another policymaker, who asked not to be named, said. “If we faced this growth-versus-inflation debate again, that lesson will be fresh on everybody’s minds and we would obviously need to act quicker.” Policymakers speaking on the record have cautioned against hasty action, arguing that the environment is volatile and time is needed before the outlines of a new normal emerges. Yannis Stournaras, Greece’s central bank governor, argued for flexibility while Martins Kazaks, Latvia’s central bank chief, said the ECB should sit tight while the impact of the war remains unclear.
admin
Roudi Baroudi The past few days have served up multiple reminders of why armed conflict is almost never a good option, let alone the best one: war is dangerous, expensive, and unpredictable, making it the last resort for prudent leaders. The entire region is on edge, with Iran seeking to internationalize the conflict so that other states will put pressure on the United States and Israel to halt their air and missile offensive. We are now on the precipice, however, of developments whose impacts will effect virtually everyone, everywhere. I refer, or course, to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow, shallow, and uniquely vital waterway that connects the Gulf to the open seas and haunts the dreams of risk analysts everywhere. About a fifth of the world’s oil — worth more than half a trillion dollars annually — transits this passage, and while Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pipelines that avoid the strait, they can’t handle nearly the same volumes. In addition, approximately the same share of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes through the same corridor, most of it Qatari LNG outbound for Asia. For good measure, Hormuz is also the route by which some 200mn people, including most of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), receive most of their food and other imports. For decades, the Iranian government has claimed the right, boasted the ability, and vowed the willingness to close this waterway in response to various forms of military or other pressure from the US. Then as now, its reasoning has been both subtle and brutal. Outwardly, Iranian officials have denied targeting GCC and other states with missiles and drones, insisting that their forces were aiming instead at US military assets on their soil, even though most of these countries have not allowed their airspace to be used for the US/Israeli offensive. Even if it were true, the Iranian interpretation would certainly be a distinction without a difference for those mourning lost loved ones, but there have now been countless drone and missile attacks on homes and residential buildings, port facilities, oil and gas infrastructure and other civilian targets in several GCC countries. Either way, the Iranians seem to have calculated that inflicting some degree of pain on their neighbours will cause more voices — in this case from within US-allied countries — to demand an end to the war. Energy pricesA similar arithmetic makes Hormuz the world’s ultimate choke point. The mere possibility of lasting disruption there has caused energy prices to rise on countless occasions, including the current crisis, and an actual closure for any length of time would be highly corrosive to the global economy. And since energy prices get baked into virtually everything else, the pain would be felt virtually everywhere. The number of countries that Iran can hit with missiles or drones is relatively limited. But close Hormuz and no country on earth would be immune to the consequences, causing many of them to demand a return to diplomacy. The fact of the matter is that Iran administers only a small section of the strait, specifically a strip of the northern channel usually used for entering the Gulf, and international law gives it no legal authority to suspend shipping there for more than a few hours without compelling reasons. Article 44 of the 1982 Law of the Sea specifically mentions that innocent passage cannot be denied. This is one reason why Tehran has been so cagey about its intent, for instance by having its parliament pass and illegal legislation supposedly authorizing closure, but then leaving the activation to the executive branch. In legal terms, then, it is difficult to conceive of circumstances in which Iran could justify closing the strait and imposing so much hardship on so many people around the world. Whatever its stated intentions, its actions would amount to little more than sabotage and extortion. In reality, Iran is already getting some of what it wants. Information published by Navionics and other ship tracking services indicates that until the current interruption, increasing numbers of ships were avoiding Iranian waters altogether, sailing entirely or almost entirely in Omani waters. But several ships have already been damaged, putting instant upward pressure on insurance rates and convincing most shipping companies that the risk is too great. Dozens of hulls — carrying oil, LNG, and all manner of general cargo — are now waiting to leave the Gulf, and dozens more are piling up outside it. Prices are already starting to rise, and each day that passes makes energy scarcer and more expensive. It won’t take long for the consequences of this kind of disruption to grow in size and severity. Traders and speculators may be able to stave off the full impact for a few days, and other oil producers can pump more to compensate, but eventually most of the GCC states will run out of storage and have to halt production. The situation for LNG could be even worse because there are so few producers, and Qatar has already halted production over safety concerns, idling almost a fifth of global output. For all of these reasons, this war involves far more than the official belligerents. The region’s geography and geology mean that anyone who uses energy in any way has a direct stake in the outcome. Even countries that export oil and gas have a vested interest in a return to stability: rising prices might be tempting in the short term, but they inevitably damage economies and weaken demand over time. For this reason in particular, all responsible participants, willing or otherwise, need to be pushing for a negotiated solution. Dialogue and diplomacy are never wasted efforts. Even when they fail to prevent or end a conflict, discussions carried out in good faith can leave behind the building blocks for a future understanding. The mere fact of direct or indirect contacts can also attenuate the intensity of operations — therefore limiting potential casualties and renewed impetus for more war — as planners start considering the repercussions for diplomacy. As human beings, therefore, we should never give up on the possibility of peace. but nor can we sit and say nothing as Iran lashes out at peoples and countries who have nothing to do with this conflict, destabilizing the entire region and undermining standards of living the world over. This is especially true of Qatar and Oman, both of which have left no stone unturned in trying to keep Iran out of a war in the first place. (Roudi Baroudi is the author of several books about maritime boundaries and has worked in the international energy business since the 1970s. He currently serves as CEO of Energy and Environment Holding, an independent consultancy based in Doha.)
admin
Balen Shah is a rap musician and thousands of Nepalese youth hero-worship him. After bringing down the government of Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli, the young protesters wanted Shah to take over power. He refused,
admin
Brett Kelman, Tribune News ServiceEarlier this year, Justin and Amy Miller packed their vehicles with three kids, two dogs, a pet bearded dragon, and whatever belongings they could fit, then drove 2,000 miles from Wisconsin
admin
Ava Vidal, The IndependentApple Martin, daughter of Gwyneth Paltrow and Coldplay singer Chris, has released a statement. Which is better than a debut album, I suppose. A false rumour had been circulating online that one
admin
Katie Rosseinsky, The IndependentIt should have been a celebratory night for the Osbourne family, or at least a brief respite from their grief. On Saturday 28 February, Ozzy’s beloved daughter Kelly and his wife Sharon
admin
A report that has been published in the State of India’s Environment (SOE) 2026 warns that India is warming fast and questions whether this will it lead to a climate apocalypse. The annual SOE report
admin
I thoroughly enjoyed reading the story “Kids are more technology savvy than baby boomers,” recently published in Gulf Today. The humorous account of a grandfather struggling with multiple TV remotes, only to have his six-year-old
