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For decades, New Zealand has relied on inflating the housing market to engineer a recovery during downturns, but the playbook has failed this time, putting policymakers in a quandary just as the Middle East war adds a new layer of uncertainty.Even after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand aggressively slashed the benchmark interest rate from 5.5% to 2.25%, house prices still languish some 20% below their pandemic peak, dismantling the wealth effect that long anchored the economy.The war compounds the problem, with oil price inflation pushing up borrowing costs globally, potentially forcing the RBNZ into a more hawkish stance even with the economy in the worst shape since the global financial crisis. New Zealand’s borrowers are already being squeezed by higher market interest rates and anaemic demand, making any recovery in the housing market - once one of the world’s most expensive — elusive, said Nick Goodall, head of research at Cotality NZ.“It’s sort of been thrown into question now with all the global uncertainty,” Goodall said, noting he had previously expected some pick-up in the housing market this year as prices, mortgage rates and salaries found an equilibrium. “The longer the war drags on, the worse it will get.”The RBNZ already forecasts no rise in house prices this year.Economic growth cooled in the fourth quarter, data showed last week, with construction slumping and consumer spending weak, even before the massive distruptions created by the war. The unemployment rate stands at a decade-high of 5.4%.Government efforts to stoke growth have been lacklustre, even with an election looming on November 7 that is sure to be dominated by voter dissatisfaction over the economy. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has offered little aimed at reviving the labour market, which is still reeling from waves of public sector layoffs last year.Real estate projects have frozen, with the market hobbled by a glut of supply and few buyers.In Auckland, a 56-storey residential tower called Seascape -meant to be New Zealand’s tallest building - may never be completed with developer Shundi Customs placed in receivership this month.At an apartment project in Wellington named One Tasman, which was launched in 2021 and due to be completed in early 2025, the existing building on the site had been cordoned off but had yet to be demolished when Reuters visited last month. Repeated calls to developer Willis Bond’s office did not go through, while intereview requests to company executives on LinkedIn were ignored.“Launching in 2021 when the market was as hot as it could be, it’s a challenge for any developer to bring something to the market ... because the market turned very shortly after 2021,” said Tamba Carleton, director of residential research at CBRE. “Quite a few other projects were in that situation, where they just had to go back to the drawing board until market cycle timing was more supportive.”New Zealand’s housing malaise has been exacerbated by a wave of affluent New Zealanders opting to leave the country for better economic conditions elsewhere. Statistics New Zealand estimated the country lost 40,000 citizens last year alone, with more than 60% of them moving to Australia, building on two years of similar outflows. Former New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern’s recent move to Sydney has become a symbol of the problem.“Because thousands of Wellingtonians have left the area, the supply-and-demand seesaw has completely changed,” said Brian Ellis, a 59-year-old retiree, who recently sold his inner city apartment for a price well below his expectations. “It’s literally made a half-million-dollar difference to how much money I’m going to have to enjoy my retirement.”Meanwhile, former project manager David Laing said he had considered a move to Australia but ultimately decided against it because his wife has stable employment in Wellington.Since being laid off 18 months ago, Laing says he has received only a handful of interviews from hundreds of job applications. “We’ve cut anything that’s not non-discretionary out of our budget,” he said. “From a financial perspective, it definitely feels like the household is going backwards.” -Reuters
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Cuba's power grid was restored on Sunday, officials said, a day after the second nationwide blackout in a week as the crisis-hit island struggles under a US oil blockade. Two-thirds of Havana had power again
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Ryan Huling, Tribune News ServiceBeijing : In early February, I was invited to visit a discreet industrial building just outside Beijing’s historic city center. What I saw inside has the potential to radically restructure the
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Anahita Dua, Tribune News ServiceWhen someone is sick in this country, they don’t ask for a politician. They ask for a doctor, a nurse, or a therapist — a front line health care worker. They
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PARIS: Emmanuel Grégoire, a Socialist little known to the French public, was elected mayor of Paris in a runoff vote on Sunday, succeeding fellow party member Anne Hidalgo. Soon after claiming victory, Grégoire, 48, took
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Stella Qiu, ReutersFor decades, New Zealand has relied on inflating the housing market to engineer a recovery during downturns, but the playbook has failed this time, putting policymakers in a quandary just as the Middle
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When conflict erupts, the first disruptions are often measured not only in geopolitical headlines but also in legal notices. Within just two days of the current crisis in the Middle East, contractors involved in major infrastructure projects in Qatar had begun issuing and receiving force majeure notices.This rapid response reflects a deeper reality about doing business in a region impacted by global politics. Large-scale infrastructure projects, from transport networks to energy facilities, are often planned years in advance and involve billions of dollars in investment. Yet geopolitical events can change the operating environment overnight. When they do, one contractual mechanism quickly moves from the fine print to the forefront: force majeure.The term ‘force majeure,’ meaning ‘superior force,’ originates in French civil law but has become a standard feature in international construction contracts. It allows a party to suspend or avoid certain contractual obligations when extraordinary events beyond its control, such as war, natural disasters or terrorism, prevent performance.For contractors and developers operating in the Middle East today, reviewing these provisions is not merely a legal technicality. It is an urgent commercial necessity. In the absence of an explicit force majeure clause, parties may find themselves with limited protection when external events disrupt their ability to perform a contract.Under English common law, for example, the doctrine of frustration may excuse performance if an unforeseen event fundamentally changes the nature of the contract. However, this doctrine applies only in narrow circumstances. By contrast, the Qatar Civil Code expressly recognises the concept of force majeure under Article 188. Even so, most construction contracts include their own detailed force majeure provisions to clarify how risk will be allocated when extraordinary events occur.At the heart of every force majeure clause lies a definition of what qualifies as a force majeure event. Some contracts adopt a broad formulation, referring to any event beyond the reasonable control of the affected party. Others rely on more detailed lists of qualifying events such as war, floods, earthquakes, or terrorist attacks. Both approaches have advantages and risks.A narrowly drafted list may fail to capture unforeseen crises, leaving parties exposed if a disruption falls outside the specified categories. On the other hand, overly broad definitions can create uncertainty about when the clause should legitimately apply. As a result, many modern construction contracts combine the two approaches: listing anticipated events while also including broader ‘catch-all’ language to capture similar circumstances that the parties may not have predicted. But identifying a qualifying event is only the first step.To rely on force majeure, a party must usually demonstrate several key elements. The event must have prevented, hindered, or delayed performance of contractual obligations. It must be beyond the party’s control. And the party must show that it could not reasonably have avoided or mitigated the consequences. This last requirement is particularly important.Force majeure is not a remedy for commercial inconvenience. A contractor cannot rely on the clause simply because a project has become more expensive or difficult. Courts and arbitral tribunals will typically expect evidence that reasonable steps were taken to mitigate the impact of the disruption.Equally critical are the procedural requirements contained in most contracts. Force majeure clauses usually require the affected party to notify its counterparty within a specified timeframe. These notices must explain the nature of the event and how it is preventing performance. In practical terms, this means that failing to comply with the notice requirements, even during a crisis, may prevent a party from relying on force majeure at all. In fast-moving situations such as regional conflict, this can create significant legal risk.When properly invoked, the most common consequence of force majeure is the temporary suspension of contractual obligations. In effect, the contract is paused while the disruptive event continues to prevent performance. If the disruption persists for a prolonged period, however, termination may follow.Many construction contracts allow either party to terminate the agreement after six to twelve months of sustained force majeure. In those circumstances, contractors are typically paid for work completed and may recover certain costs, such as demobilisation expenses, but they rarely receive compensation for lost profits. These scenarios frequently give rise to disputes, particularly regarding the valuation of completed work and the costs incurred before termination, so careful documentation of project progress and costs can be critical evidence if disagreements later arise.The current regional crisis serves as a stark reminder that even the most carefully negotiated contracts operate within a broader geopolitical environment. Infrastructure development across the Middle East continues to accelerate, but global tensions mean that disruption can never be entirely ruled out.In this context, force majeure clauses are far more than standard boilerplate. They are essential tools for managing risk in an unpredictable world. For companies operating in the region’s construction sector, understanding how these clauses work, and ensuring they are drafted and invoked correctly, may ultimately determine whether a crisis results in a manageable delay or a costly legal dispute.Matthew Williams is Counsel at Crowell & Moring in Doha. With more than a decade of experience in Qatar, he advises on construction, project finance and arbitration matters across the region. Related Story
