War and hunger: Iran conflict is disrupting global food supply chain
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admin
- March 24, 2026
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Nearing one month, the US-Israeli war with Iran has cut off important sources of energy and fertilisers that are key inputs in the production of grains, vegetables and meat. The conflict is sending shockwaves through the global food industry — from growers to packaging firms and distributors — with major implications for food security and living standards. Farmers whose crop yields were already squeezed by bouts of extreme weather now face having to pay more for those crucial inputs and are likely to pass on the cost to consumers through higher prices. The Gulf region has become a significant producer of nitrogen fertilisers in recent decades, and the Strait of Hormuz was handling about a third of the global trade before the war broke out. The conflict has severely disrupted exports from the region, sending prices soaring and farmers scrambling to secure enough of the products while they can. The war is also disrupting production of nitrogen fertilisers in other parts of the world as the conflict has affected supplies of their key ingredient: natural gas. This has led fertiliser manufacturers in countries such as India and Bangladesh to reduce output. There are signs that soaring gas prices are also putting European production under strain. Nitrogen fertilisers underpin roughly half of global food production by supplying plants with nutrients that support their growth. The sudden loss of supply of both chemicals and fuel compounds the problem. India, for example, is heavily reliant on urea and LNG imported via the Strait. Australia, meanwhile, has plenty of LNG but gets more than a third of its fertiliser from the Middle East as well as much of the diesel needed to deliver and apply it. Disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea shipping routes has raised freight costs and lengthened transit times for grains, oilseeds and fertilisers. Even short journeys face an impact as higher fuel prices make land transportation costlier. Before the war broke out, food inflation around the world was generally expected to ease this year. Food commodity costs are still well below their peak of March 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but the impact of the war is starting to feed through official price gauges. In Turkiye, consumers were reportedly paying about a third more for their vegetables, before the conflict started. The full impact is likely to take some time to materialise. Food prices tend to respond to prolonged energy shocks, not short spikes, and the effect on grocery prices is typically indirect and delayed, according to David Ortega, a professor of food economics at Michigan State University. Modern agriculture is an energy-intensive industry, relying on large amounts of fuel to power machinery used for sowing, harvesting and tending to livestock in sprawling pastures. Without this supply, farming calendars honed over generations could easily be disrupted. If farmers can’t get enough diesel, sowing could be delayed or reduced. Mature crops left in the ground would deteriorate, while the cost of processing and transporting produce after harvest would also increase. Import-dependent countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are particularly exposed to fertiliser shortages and rising input costs, the Food and Agriculture Organisation said on March 15. While farmers in rich nations can count on support from their governments, concerns are mounting over some of the poorest economies. Higher food prices will complicate efforts by central banks to get a post-pandemic wave of inflation back under control. The situation also presents a challenge for politicians, especially in emerging-market economies where food eats up a greater proportion of household incomes than it does in more industrialised nations. As many as 45mn more people could face acute hunger if the conflict in Iran doesn’t ease by the middle of the year, taking the total number to a record high, the UN World Food Programme has warned.
