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Andy Burnham’s government feels new and different. That is a tribute to his political touch and communication skills, which are so much better than Keir Starmer’s. The former PM couldn’t tell a story — not least because he didn’t have one. He was a blank page even to his close allies.
But let me ask you: how different is it really? Take the following: “A roadmap for future fiscal devolution, to be published at this year’s Budget…will set out plans to give regional leaders control of a share of some national taxes which have, for too long, been allocated by central government. They will look at income tax, alongside other taxes.”
Who said that? Burnham when unveiling his flagship policy on devolution? No. Rachel Reeves in her Mais Lecture in March, though Burnham outlined the exact same approach last month.
How about this? “Further education. So long a Cinderella service. Ignored — because politicians’ kids don’t go there. We will make it a defining cause for this Labour government… The glass ceiling — smashed.” A dose of Burnham’s strong rhetoric on parity between technical and academic education, surely? Wrong. It was Starmer at last year’s Labour conference, again echoed by Burnham on becoming prime minister.
And this on social care? “Local authorities are being pushed to the brink while some private providers (including some backed by private equity) continue to make excessive profits — this cannot continue.” Burnham’s big speech on social care, of course? Indeed, he made very similar remarks. But the words were from Steve Reed, the Starmer loyalist in charge of local government before Burnham sacked him.
The new PM’s headache on the prisoner early release scheme is another reminder that he can’t escape Starmer’s legacy: the facts of political life have not changed and cannot be waved away with a magic wand by the new king.
On the face of it, Burnham has adopted a similar approach to his predecessor to jail overcrowding. Two years ago, on entering Downing Street, Starmer was issued with a chilling warning that prisons were at bursting point — a rotten inheritance from the Conservatives. Starmer quietly tweaked his initial early release scheme to keep some criminals behind bars, just as Burnham did this week. Yet Labour MPs spotted an important difference: Burnham tried to take the public on a journey with him. He admitted he wanted to go “much further” by blocking other prisoners being released but had to prevent the prison system “collapsing” — and putting public safety at much greater risk.
Burnham must tackle the same intractable problems, but will do it differently. He rightly accepts the need to stem the unsustainable rise in welfare spending. True to his approach, he is trying to take Labour MPs with him, talking up opportunities for young people rather than imposing crude cuts as Starmer proposed before backing down. The problem for Burnham: savings will probably take several years to accrue and he needs to find billions for defence and social care before then.
Indeed, the one inheritance from Starmer which Burnham would dearly love to escape is on the economy. He is trapped by it. So far, he has talked a big game but acted relatively small. He wanted to go further on cost of living measures in his first week in office but there was no pot of gold left on the shelf.
Burnham must wrestle with a huge dilemma ahead of John Healey’s first Budget in October. Option one: go big and raise taxes significantly (to stick within the fiscal rules which prevent higher borrowing for day-to-day spending). Option two: muddle through with limited tax tweaks but be accused by his soft left admirers of serving up reheated Starmer incrementalism — albeit with better presentation.
Burnham has shown he can create positive vibes and headlines with very little ammunition. That will get much harder this autumn.
He will be judged not on his undoubted personal appeal or his clever comms strategy, but on whether he meets the great expectations he has raised on issues such as the cost of living and social care. He will need all the skills he has displayed during his strong and positive start — and more.
