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Since he failed to win the Nobel Peace Prize as a peacemaker, Donald Trump became a war president by joining Israel in its 12-day June campaign against Iran. Then on February 28, Trump along with Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu mounted a six-week war on Iran. But finding that their latest war has no end, Trump wants to declare victory and close down the war.
To achieve his objective, he has sown multiple misconceptions. At an event in Las Vegas, the US gambling capital, he said that “the war in Iran is going along swimmingly. It should be ending pretty soon.” He boasted, “It’s perfect. It was the power we have. We had the most powerful military anywhere in the world.” He added that if an agreement was reached and signed in Islamabad, he might travel to Pakistan for the occasion. Having had enough of his war, Trump wants to assume the mantle of a peacemaker, particularly at a time Pope Leo is condemning warmakers.
Trump knows nothing of war. During the US war on Vietnam, he received four draft deferrals while he was at university and a fifth based on a claim of heel spurs, calcifications which make walking painful. He played sports then or took up golf in later life.
A revealing New York Times report revealed that Trump’s closest advisers opposed this war and warned of destabilising regional repercussions. Even Trump loyalist Vice President J D Vance was against launching this war. However, Trump insisted and with all too eager Netanyahu opted for war. While Trump wants to exit the conflict now, Netanyahu prefers to continue. He has been disappointed by the ceasefire on the Lebanese front where Israel has been battling Iran’s ally Hizbollah to a stalemate at Lebanon’s expense.
The US public is not keen on the Iran war. A Pew poll conducted between March 16-22 showed 62 per cent of respondents opposed the war although 45 per cent said it was going well. As usual, there was division along partisan lines. Ninety per cent of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents disapproved of Trump’s handling of the conflict and 88 per cent said the US was wrong. By contrast, about 69 per cent of Republicans and Republican leaners approved of Trump’s management and 71 per cent and thought he made the right decision.
Members of Congress complained that Trump launched the war without consultation although required by US law. Nevertheless, both the US House of Representatives and Senate narrowly rejected resolutions calling for a halt to the war: voting was along party lines. Opposing lawmakers were concerned over predicted and unexpected consequences on the economic front as the International Monetary Fund had warned that global growth could be 2.5 per cent this year as compared to 3.4 per cent in 2025.
The ceasefire has compelled Trump to shift from armed attack to economic warfare by imposing a tight blockade on Iran’s ports and ships. This prevents Iran from exporting oil and importing essential items such as medicines and medical equipment. Iran replied by using its geographic leverage to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz through which 20 per cent of global oil, gas and fertilisers are exported from the Gulf and Saudi Arabia. Tehran said Hormuz will remain closed until the US blockade is lifted. Trump said this would end when the US reached a peace deal with Iran.
Commentators told Reuters prolonged closure could produce the “worst oil shock in history. “There is no give on either side although Trump’s US approval rating is low due to criticism of his policies and Iran’s economy is in crisis due to mismanagement, corruption, and decades of sanctions. By the end of January its currency had lost most of its value. This precipitated country-wide demonstrations which were brutally put down by the Basij militia and as many as 30,000 were killed.
Trump apparently believes that if Iran’s oil exports and essential goods imports are halted, Tehran would be forced to agree to US terms to end the war. A week into the blockade, Iran has not capitulated. Desperate to project the notion of an end is nigh to the unpopular war well ahead of the November legislative byelections, Trump has been telling lies.
In a bid to give the impression that Washington and Tehran have developed an amical relationship after 47 years of enmity, Trump said last Friday that the US was helping Iran clear mines laid in the Strait of Hormuz. He claimed that the “Hormuz Strait situation is over” and declared “Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again.” However, Iran has made no commitment to keep Hormuz open. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the strait would remain open “for the remaining period of ceasefire” for ships that adhered to a route “coordinated” by Iran. Later, the ministry’s spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said the strait would be under Iran’s control although it has shared control with Oman for decades.
In 1959, Iran expanded its territorial waters to 22 km, thereby altering Hormuz’s legal status as an international waterway, and announcing Tehran would allow only passage by civilian vessels. In 1972, Oman followed suit, enclosing Hormuz in the territorial waters of these two countries. Warships must receive passage permission from both.
Trump threatened to allow the ceasefire with Iran to expire on Wednesday and “start dropping bombs again” if a long-term deal to halt the war was not agreed by then. This is an impossible endeavour. Experts claim it could take 60 days or more to construct a framework both sides could accept as an interim measure.
Nevertheless, Trump is trying to dictate terms. He argued that the US and Iran would cooperate in the recovery of half a tonne of enriched uranium buried at Isfahan and ship the material to the US. At the same time, he rejected reports that the US would pay $20 billion in cash for a deal over the uranium. “No money is changing hands,” he told Reuters. In reply, Baghaei said Tehran rejected transferring its enriched uranium stockpile abroad.
Trump has not been deterred. Trump told AFP that there were “no sticking points” left in a peace deal with Iran. However, there are many sticking points: Hormuz; the existence of Iran’s nuclear facilities, a moratorium on Iran’s uranium enrichment and the fate of its stockpile of enriched uranium; Iran’s regional allies Hizbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Palestine, and Iraqi militias; $20 billion in Iran’s assets frozen in foreign banks; and compensation for war and economic losses.
