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Morgan Cozzi -- who was linked to Lily Allen's ex-husband, David Harbour, late last year -- was asked to leave a birthday bash for Lily's longtime producer ... TMZ has learned. Sources with direct knowledge
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Roudi Baroudi The past few days have served up multiple reminders of why armed conflict is almost never a good option, let alone the best one: war is dangerous, expensive, and unpredictable, making it the last resort for prudent leaders. The entire region is on edge, with Iran seeking to internationalize the conflict so that other states will put pressure on the United States and Israel to halt their air and missile offensive. We are now on the precipice, however, of developments whose impacts will effect virtually everyone, everywhere. I refer, or course, to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow, shallow, and uniquely vital waterway that connects the Gulf to the open seas and haunts the dreams of risk analysts everywhere. About a fifth of the world’s oil — worth more than half a trillion dollars annually — transits this passage, and while Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pipelines that avoid the strait, they can’t handle nearly the same volumes. In addition, approximately the same share of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes through the same corridor, most of it Qatari LNG outbound for Asia. For good measure, Hormuz is also the route by which some 200mn people, including most of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), receive most of their food and other imports. For decades, the Iranian government has claimed the right, boasted the ability, and vowed the willingness to close this waterway in response to various forms of military or other pressure from the US. Then as now, its reasoning has been both subtle and brutal. Outwardly, Iranian officials have denied targeting GCC and other states with missiles and drones, insisting that their forces were aiming instead at US military assets on their soil, even though most of these countries have not allowed their airspace to be used for the US/Israeli offensive. Even if it were true, the Iranian interpretation would certainly be a distinction without a difference for those mourning lost loved ones, but there have now been countless drone and missile attacks on homes and residential buildings, port facilities, oil and gas infrastructure and other civilian targets in several GCC countries. Either way, the Iranians seem to have calculated that inflicting some degree of pain on their neighbours will cause more voices — in this case from within US-allied countries — to demand an end to the war. Energy pricesA similar arithmetic makes Hormuz the world’s ultimate choke point. The mere possibility of lasting disruption there has caused energy prices to rise on countless occasions, including the current crisis, and an actual closure for any length of time would be highly corrosive to the global economy. And since energy prices get baked into virtually everything else, the pain would be felt virtually everywhere. The number of countries that Iran can hit with missiles or drones is relatively limited. But close Hormuz and no country on earth would be immune to the consequences, causing many of them to demand a return to diplomacy. The fact of the matter is that Iran administers only a small section of the strait, specifically a strip of the northern channel usually used for entering the Gulf, and international law gives it no legal authority to suspend shipping there for more than a few hours without compelling reasons. Article 44 of the 1982 Law of the Sea specifically mentions that innocent passage cannot be denied. This is one reason why Tehran has been so cagey about its intent, for instance by having its parliament pass and illegal legislation supposedly authorizing closure, but then leaving the activation to the executive branch. In legal terms, then, it is difficult to conceive of circumstances in which Iran could justify closing the strait and imposing so much hardship on so many people around the world. Whatever its stated intentions, its actions would amount to little more than sabotage and extortion. In reality, Iran is already getting some of what it wants. Information published by Navionics and other ship tracking services indicates that until the current interruption, increasing numbers of ships were avoiding Iranian waters altogether, sailing entirely or almost entirely in Omani waters. But several ships have already been damaged, putting instant upward pressure on insurance rates and convincing most shipping companies that the risk is too great. Dozens of hulls — carrying oil, LNG, and all manner of general cargo — are now waiting to leave the Gulf, and dozens more are piling up outside it. Prices are already starting to rise, and each day that passes makes energy scarcer and more expensive. It won’t take long for the consequences of this kind of disruption to grow in size and severity. Traders and speculators may be able to stave off the full impact for a few days, and other oil producers can pump more to compensate, but eventually most of the GCC states will run out of storage and have to halt production. The situation for LNG could be even worse because there are so few producers, and Qatar has already halted production over safety concerns, idling almost a fifth of global output. For all of these reasons, this war involves far more than the official belligerents. The region’s geography and geology mean that anyone who uses energy in any way has a direct stake in the outcome. Even countries that export oil and gas have a vested interest in a return to stability: rising prices might be tempting in the short term, but they inevitably damage economies and weaken demand over time. For this reason in particular, all responsible participants, willing or otherwise, need to be pushing for a negotiated solution. Dialogue and diplomacy are never wasted efforts. Even when they fail to prevent or end a conflict, discussions carried out in good faith can leave behind the building blocks for a future understanding. The mere fact of direct or indirect contacts can also attenuate the intensity of operations — therefore limiting potential casualties and renewed impetus for more war — as planners start considering the repercussions for diplomacy. As human beings, therefore, we should never give up on the possibility of peace. but nor can we sit and say nothing as Iran lashes out at peoples and countries who have nothing to do with this conflict, destabilizing the entire region and undermining standards of living the world over. This is especially true of Qatar and Oman, both of which have left no stone unturned in trying to keep Iran out of a war in the first place. (Roudi Baroudi is the author of several books about maritime boundaries and has worked in the international energy business since the 1970s. He currently serves as CEO of Energy and Environment Holding, an independent consultancy based in Doha.)
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Having missed the onset of a historic inflation surge just years ago, European Central Bank policymakers are likely to avoid casting any Iran war-induced price spike as “transitory” and may keep a lower bar for policy action than in past energy price shocks. In 2022 the ECB was one of the last of the big central banks to tighten policy in response to the economic disruption caused by the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, only lifting interest rates in July of that year — months after the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England - calling the “inflation hump” merely transitory. It subsequently found itself having to raise rates at a record pace as price growth shot past 10%, five times its target and the highest level since the currency bloc was established. While the ECB will again react cautiously to any temporary, oil-led surges in inflation, this time it is mindful both of the lessons from 2022 and of the fact that the import-dependent euro zone economy is more exposed than others to rising energy costs, economists and policymakers said. “We must at all cost avoid describing inflation as ‘transitory’,” said one policymaker who requested anonymity so as to discuss policy deliberations candidly. “The ECB policy outlook is in the hands of military generals now,” the source added of how global prices would now depend on twists and turns in the conflict sparked by the US and Israeli strikes on Iran. The key lesson for the bank is that standard models are less reliable in exceptional shocks and more pragmatic analysis is needed, drawing on the lessons of similar episodes. The war has already pushed oil prices 20% higher this week, and fuel retailers are likely to pass this cost on to motorists within days, creating an instant feedback mechanism. The current environment is not fully comparable with 2022. Fiscal and monetary policies are tighter and there is no post-pandemic spending exuberance which aggravated supply bottlenecks. The war could also resolve quickly, reversing energy price increases. But domestic inflation is still too high. It was only an earlier fall in the oil price which lowered the headline figure below the ECB’s 2% target at the start of the year. Rapid inflation is still a recent memory for firms, so the central bank may be quicker than in the past to start adjusting prices. Global inflation is also still elevated. Even before the war, the US Federal Reserve said the risk of inflation running above its target was meaningful. Minutes from its January meeting show several policymakers were open to rate hikes. “With the 2022 inflation spike a fresh memory, risks are that inflation expectations are less anchored, and the ECB will try to not make the same mistake of reacting too late twice,” Nordea economists Tuuli Koivu and Anders Svendsen said. The ECB’s dilemma is that rate hikes only weigh on prices with a 12- to 18-month lag, so action is only warranted if it believes inflation will be persistent. Moreover, an energy price spike would hit growth, which in turn would be deflationary. But some say that should not be an excuse for inaction. “We had this debate in 2022 and we were clearly too timid,” another policymaker, who asked not to be named, said. “If we faced this growth-versus-inflation debate again, that lesson will be fresh on everybody’s minds and we would obviously need to act quicker.” Policymakers speaking on the record have cautioned against hasty action, arguing that the environment is volatile and time is needed before the outlines of a new normal emerges. Yannis Stournaras, Greece’s central bank governor, argued for flexibility while Martins Kazaks, Latvia’s central bank chief, said the ECB should sit tight while the impact of the war remains unclear.
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World number one Aryna Sabalenka on Tuesday voiced her support for a proposal to make women's matches best-of-five sets during the later stages of Grand Slam tournaments.Speaking ahead of this week's ATP-WTA tournament in Indian Wells, the hard-hitting Sabalenka said she believed switching to five sets would benefit her game."Yeah, let's do that," the four-time Grand Slam singles champion said when asked about the idea, which was floated by incoming US Tennis Association chief Craig Tiley at the Australian Open earlier this year."I feel like I would have probably more Grand Slams," Sabalenka added. "Physically I'm really strong, and I'm pretty confident that my body can handle that. So let's do it."Tiley, the former head of the Australian Open who last week was named as the new USTA chief, told the New York Times in an interview last month that switching to five sets from the quarter-finals onwards at Grand Slams should be discussed."All the research shows interest grows as the match goes on," Tiley said. "As a sport, we need to evolve."But while Sabalenka backed the move, other women players were more circumspect."I mean, it probably would favor me, because I'm physically up there with the best, but I mean, I probably wouldn't want to see that happen," reigning French Open champion Coco Gauff told reporters."And if it were to happen, I would prefer it to be the whole tournament, not just the quarters. I think changing the format in the middle of the tournament defeats the purpose of the playing field."Six-time Grand Slam champion and former world number one Iga Swiatek was firmly against the idea, and questioned the suggestion it would boost audiences."I think honestly it's a weird approach in the world where everything is becoming faster, you know," Swiatek said. "So I don't know if the audience honestly would like that."Also, I don't know if we would be able to keep the quality for five sets. Well, that's a fact, like, men are more physically strong and they can handle it for sure better."Swiatek said the physical demands would also force players to adjust their schedules, potentially leading to them playing fewer tournaments."We have never practiced in a way to prepare for that, so we would need to change, I think, our whole calendar, because the Grand Slams would be so tough that I don't think we would have honestly time to prepare for any other tournaments," she said."I think it would change a lot. I don't think it would change anything for good."World number five Jessica Pegula echoed Swiatek's remarks, stating while five sets were well within the physical capabilities of women, a switch could be counter-productive."I think we have amazing female athletes that honestly I think we could do that," the American said. "I don't think it's the fact that we can't; I just don't necessarily think that we should."On that aspect, I don't even know how you would schedule tournaments. We'd have to add weeks. We can't even get through the schedule now. So I'm not really sure for like a fan experience how that would really work." Related Story
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Swedish Air Force JAS 39 Gripen aircraft are parked in a hangar at the air base in Keflavik, Iceland. Swedish fighter jets are patrolling the skies around Iceland for the first time, as Nato allies try to show both US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that they are serious about protecting the Arctic. Sweden has sent six of its Saab Gripen fighter jets, the crown jewel of its defence industry, as part of Nato mission Arctic Sentry.The mission is seeking to strengthen Nato's presence in the strategically important Arctic region as part of an effort to defuse severe tensions within the alliance prompted by Trump's push for the US to acquire Greenland.Trump has forced Nato allies to sharply increase military spending, including in the Arctic. He has been particularly unimpressed by Denmark's military presence on Greenland, which he mockingly described as "two dog sleds".The Swedish fighters are mainly on the lookout for Russian long-range bombers that can take off from air bases on the Kola Peninsula, which is home to Russia's Northern Fleet and also has nuclear missile silos. "Iceland as well as all of the Arctic would be important (in case of a conflict) because that's the warning chain for attacks against the US or Canada across the Arctic," said Major General Frode Arnfinn Kristoffersen, deputy chief of staff, operations, at Nato Joint Force Command Norfolk."Russia sees the Arctic as vital to becoming a great power and has also built up new Arctic bases and opened up former Soviet military sites, including deep-water ports and airfields," he said. Russia has repeatedly dismissed claims it is seeking to take over Greenland, or is a threat in the Arctic, saying they are false "horror stories" made up by Western leaders to justify their own behaviour.HARSH ARCTIC CONDITIONSKeflavik Air Base, built during World War Two and up until 2006 an American base, is home to the Nato air policing missions that have been done periodically since 2008.The cold and windy conditions are the same as those on Greenland and the rest of the Arctic."We have experiences from operating in this kind of harsh environment...so for us, it's quite natural to also be able to operate here in Iceland," said Major General Jonas Wikman, Sweden's Air Force chief.The JAS 39 Gripen is a fourth-generation light single-engine supersonic multi-role aircraft, meaning it can do air-to-ground, air-to-surface, and air-to-air operations."It's perfectly suitable for this weather. It's built in Sweden for the Swedish climate, and this is basically what we have back in Sweden," said Lieutenant Colonel Robin Arvidsson, fighter pilot and squadron commander in the Swedish Air Force.It has a low logistical footprint and can be refuelled and rearmed by one officer and four conscripts in as little as 10 minutes.DANGEROUS BUILD-UPWhile Nato allies have rushed to increase the alliance's presence in the Arctic, some analysts and politicians have questioned the rationale behind the build-up, saying Russia does not currently pose a threat to Greenland."This is very dangerous because it leads to an action-reaction cycle," said Pavel Devyatkin, senior associate at Washington-based think tank, The Arctic Institute."There's a very high chance of an accidental incident, of an escalation," he said. "These moves from Sweden and from Nato are basically appeasing President Trump," he said. Related Story
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Malaysia's Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) chief commissioner Azam Baki takes part in a press conference at the MACC headquarters in Putrajaya Wednesday. Malaysia's anti-corruption agency said Wednesday it was probing alleged abuse of power, fraud and governance issues linked to a 1.11bn ringgit ($280mn) deal between the Malaysian government and British chip giant Arm Holdings.The Southeast Asian country, which is one of the world's top chip exporters, signed an agreement with the firm last March to boost production of high-end semiconducters, as the US-China tech trade war shook global markets."We have summoned a total of 12 witnesses so far from various government agencies, especially from the economy ministry, Malaysia's investment development authority and also from the trade ministry and several other agencies," Malaysia’s Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) chief Azam Baki said.A former minister was one of those called in to give a statement, Azam said, refusing to name the individual.Rafizi Ramli was Malaysia's economy minister at the time, while Tengku Zafrul Aziz held the investment, trade and industry minister portfolio.Malaysia is a key player in the vital chips sector but has been largely focused on packaging, assembly and testing services — the lower end of the market.The Arm Holdings agreement will see the Softbank-owned firm provide chip designs and other technology to Malaysia, helping the nation shift into more value-added production, such as wafer fabrication and integrated circuit design.Malaysia said at that time it would pay $250mn over a decade to receive support from the British company."We will investigate this matter in a fair and professional manner," Azam said, adding that more witnesses will be summoned to assist the probe.Malaysia's semiconductor exports were valued at 387.98bn ringgit ($87.48bn) in 2024, the Malaysia External Trade Development Corp said, making the country one of the world's top 10 chip exporters.Malaysia's northern island of Penang, home to a number of facilities, is often dubbed the country's Silicon Valley.Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announced plans in April 2024 to build a massive semiconductor design park, an effort to move the country beyond chips production. Related Story
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Luxury cars are on display, as Taiwan auctions off luxury cars linked to the Cambodian scam centre Prince Group, in Taipei, Taiwan. Taiwanese prosecutors charged 62 people and 13 companies Wednesday in connection with a Cambodian conglomerate whose founder is accused of running forced labour camps.Prince Holding Group founder Chen Zhi has been indicted by the US on fraud and money-laundering charges for allegedly running a multibillion-dollar cyberscam network from Cambodia.The Southeast Asian nation has emerged as a hotspot for crime syndicates running a multibillion-dollar fraud industry that sees scammers lure internet users globally into fake romantic relationships and cryptocurrency investments.Cambodia deported Chen to China in January. Beijing has called Chen "the ringleader of a major cross-border gambling and fraud criminal syndicate".The Taipei District Prosecutors Office said 62 people, including Chen, and 13 companies have been charged with offences that include "initiating, directing, manipulating, and commanding a criminal organisation".Other charges include large-scale money laundering, falsifying accounting records, operating gambling venues for profit and using forged business documents."The Prince Group, led by Chen Zhi,... established multiple companies in Taiwan from 2016 onwards to facilitate illegal gambling and money laundering operations," prosecutors said in a statement.More than $300mn was laundered in Taiwan using channels including foreign exchange transfers to Taiwanese companies, prosecutors said.Authorities also seized more than $170mn worth of assets, including luxury residences and high-end cars, as part of the investigation.Dozens of seized sports cars, including limited edition models for Porsche, Ferrari and other brands, have been auctioned off for more than $12mn.Taiwanese prosecutors are seeking jail sentences of between six and more than 20 years for the defendants.
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People stand next to a passenger train after it was hit by a Russian drone strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, at a railway station in Mykolaiv region, Wednesday. At least five people were injured Wednesday in two Russian attacks targeting railway infrastructure in southern Ukraine, Ukrainian officials said.A railway worker was hurt in a drone strike, which hit an empty passenger train in the morning in the Mykolaiv region, Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba said on the Telegram messaging app.Another worker and two children were hurt later when a Russian missile hit an administrative building at a railway station in the neighbouring Odesa region, he said.An official later updated the number of injured in the missile attack to four, without saying who the fourth person was.Kuleba said there was also an attempted Russian drone attack late on Tuesday on a train operating between the eastern-central city of Dnipro and Kovel in northwestern Ukraine. It was stopped by railway workers and the drone hit a few metres away from the locomotive, he said.Ukrzaliznytsia, Ukrainian national railways, said Russia had intensified drone attacks on railway infrastructure, and that rolling stock was among the main targets.It reported that 18 strikes had been recorded since the start of March, damaging 41 facilities.Locomotives, freight cars and specialised equipment used to repair infrastructure have also been targeted, as well as railway depots and bridges, the operator said.On Monday, a Russian drone attack on a commuter train in Dnipropetrovsk region killed one person and wounded seven others. Related Story
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More than 120 flights expected to leave Dubai International on Wednesday, New Zealand government saysAirline shares stabilise after significant lossesSkies over swathes of Middle East still emptyWorst crisis for global travel industry since COVID-19 pandemicQantas brings Brits back from Australia Dozens of repatriation flights were due to depart from the Middle East Wednesday as governments rushed to bring home tens of thousands of citizens stranded by the intensifying U.S. and Israeli conflict with Iran.Commercial air traffic remained largely absent across much of the region, with major Gulf hubs - including Dubai, the world's busiest airport for international passengers - largely shut for a fifth straight day, in the biggest travel disruption since the Covid-19 pandemic.The first repatriation flights for Britain and France were due to leave later, while the United Arab Emirates opened safe air corridors to allow some citizens to return home. Under normal circumstances, thousands of commercial flights would depart the region each day.Some marooned tourists and expatriates have also tried to make their own way out."We're doing this cautiously," said French Finance Minister Roland Lescure. The French government said several repatriation flights were planned for its citizens, around 400,000 of whom are in the region.Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Wednesday he had authorized the use of military aircraft to support the evacuation of Polish citizens from the Middle East.Britain's Foreign Office said a charter flight would leave Oman later in the evening, with priority given to vulnerable British nationals.Emirates, the world's largest international carrier, said routes to and from Dubai remained suspended until March 7, adding that it was operating a limited schedule from Dubai International and Al Maktoum International.The Czech Republic has organised three government evacuation flights from Oman, Jordan and Egypt, bringing home 175 people, with more operations planned. Airline Smartwings is also operating return flights from Oman and Dubai, according to the CTK news agency and a government official.Slovakia said it had evacuated 127 people - mostly Slovak citizens, along with four Czechs and one Kazakh national - on two flights from Jordan that landed on Tuesday, and was preparing additional missions.New Zealand said a total of 121 repatriation flights were expected to depart Dubai International Airport on Wednesday.Qantas, meanwhile, was running extra flights to bring British people stuck in Australia back home, but would have to route them via a refuelling stop in Singapore as an alternative to the normal Middle East hubs.With airspace severely constrained, many airlines are carrying extra fuel or making additional refuelling stops to guard against sudden rerouting or longer flight paths through safer corridors.Air France said Wednesday it had extended its suspension of flights to and from Dubai and Riyadh until March 6, and had also prolonged the halt on services to Tel Aviv and Beirut until March 8.Airline shares were less volatile Wednesday after double-digit percentage drops in the past few days, which wiped tens of billions of dollars from airlines' market value.Lufthansa was up 3% at 1306 GMT, while Qantas closed down 2.7%, having lost more than 10% of its value so far this week. BA-owner IAG was up 2%, having fallen more than 13% in the past three days.Airline executives have said that crew and pilots are now scattered across the world, complicating the process of resuming flights when airspace reopens. Soaring prices of oil will also add to carriers' costs.Analysts said flights will become more expensive if longer routes become the only options for international carriers.The Gulf is also a major hub for air cargo, putting further pressure on international trade routes following the disruption of Red Sea shipping routes. Related Story
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Debris of a Nato air defence system that intercepted a missile launched from Iran is seen in Dortyol, in southern Hatay province, Turkiye, Wednesday, in this screengrab from video. A ballistic missile launched from Iran and heading towards Turkish airspace via Iraq and Syria was destroyed by Nato air defence systems, Turkish officials said Wednesday.The defence ministry said it had been "engaged and neutralised by Nato air-and-missile defence assets deployed in the eastern Mediterranean".It did not specify the missile's intended target. Iran has been hitting sites across the region in retaliation after the US and Israel launched strikes against it on Saturday.A Turkish official, speaking to AFP on condition of anonymity, said the missile had been "aimed at a base in Greek Cyprus but veered off course".Officials said fragments that fell in the Dortyol district in southern Turkey, near the Syrian border, had been identified as pieces of the interceptor used to neutralise "the threat in the air".No casualties were reported.The incident drew condemnation from Nato."Nato stands firmly with all allies, including Turkiye, as Iran continues its indiscriminate attacks across the region," Nato spokeswoman Allison Hart said, using Turkiye's official name."Our deterrence and defence posture remains strong across all domains, including when it comes to air and missile defence."Ankara summoned the Iranian ambassador to convey its "reaction and concerns" over the incident while Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned Tehran against steps that could widen the conflict, a diplomatic source said.Fidan told his Iranian counterpart in a phone call that "any steps that could lead to the spread of conflict should be avoided", the source added.In an evening address, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkiye was "taking all the necessary precautions" in consultation with its Nato allies and was issuing "warnings in the clearest terms to prevent similar incidents from happening again"."If we, as a nation, want to live in peace and tranquility... we must constantly increase our deterrent capabilities. In these difficult times... we are leaving absolutely nothing to chance regarding the security of our borders and airspace," he said.Turkiye, a majority Nato member, shares a 500-kilometre border with Iran.Erdogan has described the US-Israeli strikes on Iran which sparked the conflict as "illegal" and Fidan also criticised Iran's retaliatory strikes against Gulf nations and beyond, saying it was the "wrong strategy"."The underlying strategy seems to be: 'If I am going to sink, I will take the region down with me'," Fidan said in an interview late Tuesday.Analysts said the trajectory of the Iranian missile and its destruction by Nato systems further raised the stakes for a widening regional war, even if there was no clear evidence Iran intended to strike Turkey."Turkiye will not want to become embroiled in the US-Israel attack on Iran, which it has criticised, but if Iran launches more missiles clearly aimed at targets on Turkish territory, Ankara will consider its own direct retaliation," said Hamish Kinnear of risk-intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft.The defence ministry said: "Any steps necessary to defend our territory and airspace will be taken decisively and without hesitation.""We reserve the right to respond to any hostile actions directed at our country," it added. Related Story
