admin The Nasdaq-listed stock gained 0.45 per cent on August 28, closing above the previous session’s $140.87 but remaining well below its post-flotation peak above $225. The shares have nevertheless risen strongly from late-July levels, as investors reassess SpaceX’s expansion plans across launch services, satellite connectivity and artificial-intelligence infrastructure.
Musk put the $3.5 trillion figure forward in a reply on X on August 27, describing 2033 as his “best guess” for reaching that level of yearly revenue. The comment was not formal company guidance and substantially exceeds the growth path embedded in most Wall Street estimates.
Morgan Stanley’s model projects SpaceX revenue of roughly $3.4 trillion to $3.5 trillion by 2040. The bank has maintained an Overweight rating and a $300 price target, arguing that investors may be underestimating the scale of Starship operations and the potential contribution from artificial intelligence.
The gap between Musk’s timetable and Morgan Stanley’s forecast is substantial. Reaching $3.5 trillion by 2033 would require SpaceX to expand sales at an extraordinary pace from its current base. Morgan Stanley’s earlier modelling placed 2030 revenue near $330 billion, while other analyst estimates for that year remain far below Musk’s stated ambition.
The debate intensified after SpaceX disclosed plans for a $100 billion expansion in Louisiana, centred on a large new Starbase facility in Vermilion Parish near Pecan Island. The project is intended to support Starship launches and significantly increase the company’s launch capacity, with construction expected to begin in 2027 and initial operations targeted for 2029.
Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry and SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell announced the project this week. Plans call for a sprawling Gulf Coast complex designed to accommodate multiple launch pads, supporting higher Starship flight rates as SpaceX pursues satellite deployment, lunar missions, deep-space operations and space-based computing.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has argued that the planned build-out indicates a launch cadence beyond what is reflected in the bank’s existing long-term model. His projections assume thousands of Starship launches annually by 2040, while the Louisiana site could provide considerably more physical launch capacity if SpaceX completes the full development.
That scale also raises financing questions. The Louisiana commitment comes as SpaceX spends heavily on Starship, Starlink and artificial-intelligence infrastructure. Large capital requirements could weigh on cash generation even if revenue expands rapidly, making execution, funding costs and launch reliability important variables for shareholders.
SpaceX went public on Nasdaq in June under the ticker SPCX, raising about $75 billion at $135 a share in a record flotation. The company’s shares surged after listing before retreating sharply from their high, leaving Friday’s close only modestly above the offer price despite the size of Musk’s longer-term expectations.
The company reported strong revenue growth in its latest quarterly results but remains in an investment-heavy phase. Its businesses now span rocket launches, Starlink broadband and artificial intelligence following the integration of xAI, broadening both its potential revenue sources and its capital demands.
Artificial intelligence is central to the more aggressive valuation cases. SpaceX is developing plans for orbital computing infrastructure that would combine Starship’s payload capacity with satellites carrying advanced processors. Such systems remain technically and economically unproven at the scale contemplated, and their eventual contribution depends on launch costs, hardware performance, power generation and customer demand.
Musk has previously said SpaceX could approach $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, another projection that sits above mainstream analyst expectations. His latest estimate therefore extends an already ambitious trajectory rather than replacing published financial guidance.
